While I appreciate their valid concerns for my safety but the fact remains as one of my colleagues pointed out that "I'm not on vacation here. I'm working and saving money and we're using our free time to study and get shit done"
It just so happens that we have the kind of job that let's us do as little work as possible with a maximum return. I'll never get this kind of money again and the risk - although minimal - is worth it.
I don't have the degrees and certs to get a lucrative teaching contract in the Gulf or somewhere else. In fact, I only got this job because the interview consisted of "how fast can you get here?"
Derna
So now let's talk about ISIS and their hackney "wilayet" (province) out East in Derna.
First off, these guys still bear all the markings of a boilerplate terrorist group. They lack the kind of command and control of territory that ISIS has in Raqqa or Mosul.
They don't even fully control their provincial capital of Derna a city which is partially controlled by the Abu Salim Martyr's Brigade and Ansar Al-Sharia which are competing ideological groups.
Sirte OMG!
"But what about Sirte?" you ask. Yeah, about that.
Sirte not under the current control of ISIS or Ansar Al-Sharia but is currently held by the Fajr Libya (Libya Dawn) coalition.
How do I know this? Ask French reporter Matheu Gualtier, a white guy who would have surely been scooped up by any of the ISIS affiliates had they been operating in the city. He went there last week and confirmed - along with one of my Libya colleagues - that there is no ISIS activity in Sirte beyond the presence of scattered sympathizers or cells.
Libya isn't Iraq & Syria
As pointed out in this great article, "The Islamic State of Libya Isn't Much of a State"; the notion that Libya is the next stronghold of ISIS is a bunch of hot air.
So far, the Barqa Wilayet (Barqa is the Arabic name for Cyrenaica) military operations have been pretty much confined to assassinations, car bombs and the kidnapping and murder of unarmed migrant workers.
Sure, the gruesome images of the recent Sirte beheadings are shocking and horrifying but rather than show their strength, seem to show their weakness. ISIS in Syria and Iraq usually waited until securing a significant amount of territory and holding it before carrying out public displays of murder and dismemberment.
But the Barqa branch hasn't really done anything "impressive" militarily. They've failed to take part in anything but sending a few truck bombs against various military targets and carrying out high profile terrorist attacks. However, unlike in Syria and Iraq, they lack the ability to take and hold territory, rival jihadist groups to co-opt or defect to their side and a relatively strong presence of competent fighting forces of the Libyan Army under Karama (Operation Dignity) and the rival militias Fajr Libya (mostly composed of brigades from Misurata).
As pointed out in the article, the jihadists also lack the sectarian divide that they can take advantage of that ISIS and other jihadist groups have in Syria and Iraq against the Alawites & Shias respectively.
In short, the Barqa Wilayet are nothing more than a desperate collection of hacks who have been reduced to cowardly acts of terrorist attacks on unarmed civilian targets such as the Corinthia Hotel, the abduction and gruesome beheading of migrant workers and the use of car bombs against non-military targets.
These are all signs of an organization that is desperate to get its brand out and be heard which explains their need to get press attention by a mass beheading.
So in short, expect more of the same with the ISIS Barqa franchise: kidnappings, beheadings, car bombs and the occasional suicide attack when they can rustle up a couple Tunisians, Algerians or Egyptians to send themselves to that big biergarten in the sky.
At this point, Wilayet Barqa is reminiscent of a new gang initiate who's trying to show that he's got the cajones to roll with the likes of Baghdadi.
The good news is that Libyans are more than likely to reject any attempts by ISIS Barqa to set up anything other than sleeper cells in their midst.
They just lack the ability to find sympathizers considering that Libyans stand to get a pretty decent deal once things stabilize in Libya instead of going back to their Gaddafi-era Reagan appointed "Pariah" status.
Further, the ISIS-Barqa just lacks the ability to move freely like they did in Syria among the smorgasbord of other jihadi groups where they were able through stick and carrot to co-opt their members through defections, whole-sale pledges of allegiance and assassination of the leaders of their rivals such as was done against the leadership of the Islamic Front coalition - particularly against Ahrar As-Sham.
In conclusion: Libya has too many better alternatives for potential recruits, not enough jihadist groups to co-opt and enough authority provided by the militias of Karama & Fajr to keep ISIS-Barqa isolated or in sleeper cells.
